Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Is the USA is afraid of a direct conflict with Iran?

If Allah wanted Iranian (politicians) to fly

...he would have given them wings. But when Khomeini declared the Iran an Islamic State in 1979, Iran was aimed to go back into medieval times.

Disclaimer: I have nothing against the Iranian people or any other peoples, as long as they don't support the autocratic regime ruling over them. In fact I feel sorry for Iranians, Russians or North Koreans not to be allowed to enjoy democracy.

Already not possessing much technology or being able to develop some on their own before 1980, the Iran relied on western technology, mainly from the USA. They even sold F-18 Tomcats to Iran before 1980, which Iran still in service today, although the US and other western countries posed stringent sanctions on Iran. Thus Iran could no longer (easily) get access to modern technology, or maintain and service existing technology. The US even went on destroying all spare parts for the F-18 and also asked countries who purchased the birds before to do this. For my knowledge the US offered compensation these countries for doing so. Usually in the form of a discount on the purchase of more modern birds.

So in $date the then Iranian president $name and some other high ranking politicians lost their lives in a helicopter crash. Since Iran puts a lid on any information of the cause one can only speculate that bad weather and/or technical failures (for the supposedly bad maintained Bell helicopter) was the reason.

I suppose Allah would want Iranians to abandon all technology. But the Iranian regime seems not to obey Allah's wish, so they have cars, fly, producing weapons for war (even sold to Russia in the 2022 war in Ukraine) and even split the atom. Suppose Iranian politicians are going to rot in hell for their disobedience. They better abandon cars, using wagons pulled by mules or horses, and never attempt to fly again — and thus never leave Iranian soil, before it's too late. The "God" they might want to meet might just have two horns, a tail and pliers he already heats up in the fire. Because Iranian's President didn't follow Allah's law, he was just punished with death in the helicopter crash, no?

In my opinion Iran should be further isolated. Ask Eisenhower, he knew (and coined the word) how Containment works. It sort of already works with North Korea and Cuba, but still the western word has, albeit limited, trade with Iran. Sure other foes like Russia, North Korea and other pro Iran countries will continue or even increase trade with Iran. Still a well designed isolation should work. It works for (or better against) Cuba since decades...

The USA is afraid of a direct war with Iran — why?

Israel and the US trying to exercise caution when responding to threats originating from Iran. The US says they fear to be drawn into a wider conflict, possibly involving NATO. Even when Israel was attacked with drones and missiles the US told their junior partner to stand down, or at least be very careful when retaliate. I don't understand why. Since 1979 Iran is a smouldering fire, flaring up sometimes. A fire which in my opinion needs to be put out ASAP.

I am for a diplomatic solution. But to me it seems to be childish to assume there'll be one. Iran quit all "atom talks" and has shown it wants to destabilize western powers by supporting Russia with drones for attacks on Ukrainian civilians. The fanatic religious state wants to impose his religion to the rest of the world. They want to gain influence on the world stage, enrich uranium to threaten and finally kill democracy. There seems to be no diplomatic solution to me, and war is inevitable. If so, the longer the USA and its allies wait to "put out the fire for good", the stronger Iran becomes, and the harder to defeat her. In my opinion the US, Israel and allies should provoke Iran for a strike against them to start a full blown (defensive; they technically didn't started it) war with Iran.

Sure, Iran's allies will start to attack the US or anybody who attacks Iran. They are Iran's puppets after all and do, what the Mullahs want them to do. But the US doesn't stand alone. I would assume the UK will be on board, so will Israel. Latter can deal with geographical close foes, like Hezbollah or Hamas (if they can still fight when the time has come), as well as the Hooties in Yemen, while the US and UK silence Iran. Should be manageable for them, when Iran and his puppets are not allowed to grow in strength until then, no?

Next stop: China

Let's not forget about the Chinese threat against democracy. Like Iran, North Korea or Russia China is poised to conquer territory of other sovereign countries. Seems it's also always one person's personal wish while most of the citizens don't care. For Russia it's Ukraine (and may be later the Baltic states, Poland...), for North Korea South Korea, and for China Taiwan. Resulting wars cost or would cost hundred-thousands of deaths. Only to satisfy one person? Reminds me on Adolf Hitler, who wanted no less than the whole world. Back in the 1940s he was stopped, after initially countries looked the other way when Nazi Germany ignored the militarization of the Rhine-Land and building a potent air force in the mid 1930w. In 1939 he invaded Poland and the bloodshed started. How many millions were dead only because the wish of one man to conquer more Lebensraum? Then add those dead in the Japanese theatre, because the Emperor also wanted more space. Millions dead, only because (in case of Nazi Germany) the UK, US and others didn't forcefully intervened when only a blind didn't see what's brewing. So, today we wait again, watching how Iran and China become stronger?

  • Ruled by an autocrat leader
  • Not allowing political opposition by imprisoning or killing those who dare
  • Suppressing wishes for democracy from their citizens
  • Aiming to spread autocracy and their rule across the (especially western) world by gaining influence on the world stage
  • Not interested in diplomacy to find a solution suiting both sides
That threat needs to be contained if democracy is to prevail in western countries.

I am all for a diplomatic solution, like talks to find a solution tat both sides can live in peace. Like the threat of invading other countries and going to war has to go away. But Russia didn't just threaten others, they directly went to war with Ukraine in 2022 (you can probably say 2014 when annexing Crimea).

Because there is no sign among the leaders of these countries they want to negotiate a way out that both sides can live in peace, the only way to save democracy appears to be a military confrontation. And if a confrontation is inevitable, why wait for something to happen anyway? Waiting only allows the opponent to gain strength, resulting in a longer war with more (also civilian) casualties. Thus I doubt the USA (and Israel) want to avoid a conflict.

China "conveniently" eyes to invade Taiwan, which produces a vast number of advanced computer chips. Computer chips are the oil of the 2000s. If China would succeed to invade Taiwan, this high tech resource the western countries depend on would be gone. The Taiwanese would blow up the factories if China is successful with its invasion. Because this would be very bad for the economies of western countries like the USA, Japan and many of the European countries. Countries like Japan or the Philippines in close proximity to Taiwan are also threatened with a Chinese invasion at a later point in time, and thus going to fight China over it, if diplomacy fails — and I am positive it will. So it would be good for the US to conclude the wars she is involved in as soon as possible, to avoid to fight a multi front war.

I suppose "putting out the fire" created by the Mullahs in Iran for good and very soon should be priority for the US and her allies, to have the hands free for a possible conflict with China. Thus the US should, as I mentioned already, provoke Iran to launch a direct strike against some of her facilities, giving the US the permission to go for the Mullah's home country and remove her government with force and removing the military capabilities to wage war for a long time. After that encourage free elections, so the citizens can decide if they want democracy or continue to be ruled by autocrats.

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Is the USA is afraid of a direct conflict with Iran?

If Allah wanted Iranian (politicians) to fly ...he would have given them wings. But when Khomeini declared the Iran an Islamic State in 19...