China can easily win the trade war with the US

Since the later 1990s I raised concern about us idiots pumping money into the Chinese economy by purchasing cheaply made products and outsourcing labor to Chinese workers, because China would then use the money to boost their military capabilities. And so they did. It is or will soon be the second largest army in the world.

Until the Biden administration — ignoring the interlude by Trump 2017-2021 — I was hoping the USA with its strong economy and army will keep the Chinese Government in check. But with the selfish orange prick back in the Oval Office my support for the US wanes by the day.

On top of creating political turmoil among friends and foes the Trump administration starts a trade war with the world. It seems to be US VS the world to me. Besides analytics argue that is going to backfire, and Trump shitting his pants (anyone still going t kiss his ass, as he himself described "inferior" economies?) and did an U-Turn on tariffs after the stock market can't stop falling, he kept the tariffs against China in place. Apparently he is sure he can win this. Only to realize (did he really didn't know that?) most smartphones and electronics comes from China, and tariffs would only raise prices with customers being very unhappy, so he excluded those imports.

Okay, I don't like China either. A kind of one man Government with nukes and an economy and military growing by the day scares the living daylight out of me. But I am trying to view this scenario unbiased.

China has the historical chance to create a massive blow to the US economy now, and at the same time strengthening its economy and place on the world stage. China should have the longer breath, can absorb more pain and has more resources.

China has the longer breath

According to the BBC and CBC, since years the trade between the US and China is flat, the numbers don't fluctuate much, while China increased trade with other countries. While the US is still China's number one trading partner, it might make good damage from the tariff war with even increased trade with developing countries, and thus wait out the trade war with the US, watching as the US economy struggles and grinds down. At the end Trump will have to back down.

China's economy can absorb more pain

Xi Jinping is the supreme leader. The Chinese cannot elect any other leader to become president. Thus they must accept what ever burden Jinping puts on his people. Because it's not a democracy unrest of Chinese people will not make a change, but brutally be suppressed. Thus if people would have to pay more it will not backfire for the Government. In contrast to the US, which is (still) a democracy. When prices go up, people are becoming unhappy very quickly and will realize that Trump does not come up to his promises the Make America rich again. There'll be demonstrations if Trump does not another U-Turn with his tariffs.

Rare Earths

Although China "only" has around half of the Rare Earth deposits, according to the BBC it refines more than 90 % of the minerals. China created the facilities decades ago. They have access to cheap labor. And even though the process to refine some of the mineral creates radioactive byproducts, environmental standards are lower than in the US or Europe. That means practically China has the monopoly when it comes to Rare Earths. And luckily for China the rest of the world depends on China in this respect. Rare Earths are needed for everything from smartphones, dish washers to F-35 fighter jets, one of the United States stealth planes.

China can take down the US

With having the longer breath, being able to absorb more pain and having a monopoly of the production of Rare Earths, I think China could go full nuclear. They could keep retaliatory tariffs up even if Trump does lift them, plus put sanctions on Rare Earths. If doing so the US economy would suffer tremendously, possibly even collapse. Even if China does not go full nuclear, they have all the leverage to have the USA playing by Jingping's rules. China would establish itself as the number one power in the world.

History books will then tell about Donald Trump's legacy. He was the one bringing down the US' economy, destroying America's military power and loosing its status of the number one superpower. All, because Trump is a selfish prick, who cannot think into the future.